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Welcome to yet another log-in free post. If you are in the USA, I hope you have enjoyed your Holiday Weekend!
I need to start this post with an announcement. Before you get all huffy and roll your eyes, and all “here it comes”, let me tell you its not what you are expecting. No, I am not announcing that starting June 1st you must pay for a subscription. Nope, I’m not ready for it (I have lots of content to add to my menus and features to roll out) and neither are you!
My announcement is I will largely out of touch for the next week. I will try to post here and there, but no guarantees. And since you are not paying for anything, I trust you can understand!
With that in mind, I wanted to post the Monthly chart. Yes, I know there is one more day of trading so its not technically ready, but since I am going to be away, I thought why the hell not?
Below the current chart is my analysis through April, enjoy!
May was a bullish month, but only regained the losses of April. Monthly ADX line is in the trading range below 20. Sideways action. Comparing to before 2007 and 2000, we are similarly seeing waning positive momentum and increasing negative momentum as seen by the red and green trendlines.
RSI has reversed course from the middle of the range and is now in the upper quartile. This is not too dissimilar to what happened after the initial decline off the top in 2000 and 2008, as seen by the red horizontal lines on RSI.
Moving averages look similar at this time compared to those times highlighted with the RSI analysis above. The 12 month average blue line has topped and is turning downward.
The Bollinger Band Width is super narrow, highlighted with the yellow horizontal line. Going backwards similar widths were noted during the 2005-2008 period during the second half of the uptrend and transition to the downtrend, and at the start of the 2000-2003 downtrend.
MACD is coming off recent lows after topping in early 2015 at the highest levels seen since at least 1970(!!!). The histogram is notching higher, and no, that was not a higher low in histogram made in early 2016, in fact it is a little lower, supporting continued weakness ahead.
Volume has declined every month in 2016 as the market was rising.
Monthly (From April)
Candle: Shooting star, bulls were faded
Moving Averages: Close>12>36>72>120 period moving averages, close occurred just above the 12 month ma.
% Bollinger Band: Middle of the band
Bollinger Band Width: Still quite narrow, a large move at this scale is still on the radar. Note the yellow line trailing back in time, similar widths were seen either at a consolidation period such as 2012, or after major tops such as 2000 and 2008.
MACD: Bearish but at a positive value, MACD topped December 2014 at the highest level since at least the early 1980s (!!!!).
Old posts: https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/
Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).
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