Friday November 18th, 2016

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Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
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=========SIGNALS, NOT INDICATIVE OF POSITIONS=========
401K/Long Positions: Yes
Short Positions: No
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I have identified my BUY and SELL signals for LONG positions, with 1 model member. It will become a lot more robust, and a lot less whipsaws when I develop an ensemble of 999 members this upcoming winter. These signals are the result of several scripts and a very large Excel Spreadsheet on my desktop. So I will post the ‘final answer’ above which is what most of you want anyways!

I have found that when the Technicals Model to SPX performance is at or below -200%, this is the only good time to SHORT the market.

==============My Website To-Do List (Vision)=============

This site which only premiered on April 1st, 2016 has already come a long way. But there is so much more that I want to do, so I thought I would demonstrate my goals below! If you have any suggestions, feel free to shoot me an e-mail or comment

  • Build robust LONG/SELL swing signals using 999 ensemble members to help avoid whipsaws and maximize profit (50% done)
    – This will also utilize my proprietary Volatility Model!
  • Expand signals beyond the Technicals Model, to include other Breadth indicators, expanding the Ensemble to about 4995 members!
  • Build a real-time display for worldwide indicies, currencies and commodities, this is the first step in transitioning the site to a real-time tool for more active traders
  • Replicate the Technicals Model at the Weekly, Hourly, 15-min scales to give a real-time view of Market Trends expanding from the Daily view that I already provide
  • Custom charting code so I can display multiple models in best possible way
  • Real-time charting of Hindenburg Omens

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As always, the Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Hourly and so on SPX charts I show are from all hours of the day, and therefore the prices and indicators will vary from charts which only show action during regular trading hours. I believe this method is more robust and encapsulates global sentiment, better capturing trends.

I mark negative divergences in red, and positive divergences in green. Please note that some indicators such as -DI are inverse, so a positive divergence is bearish and a negative divergence is bullish!

First Thoughts…

Welcome to another Log-in Free Post. If you like this sort of analysis, please take a few seconds to sign up for a FREE login using the form at the bottom of this post, and after I complete the process (within 12 hours), you’ll be able to see every post past and future!

And since today is Friday, I’ll also be looking at the SPX weekly chart.

S&P500 Volatility (proprietary)

I developed the S&P500 Volatility Index to help characterize the volatility of the S&P500 market on a scale of 0 to 20. It has nothing to do with $VIX (which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility, constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options). This indicator serves to rank the volatility of the current market period using market data from 1990 to 8/9/2016.

Why does this matter? In coming up with BUY and SELL signals in any system, you need to know when to flip quickly, vs. times you can wait and see if your signal is a fluke or not. This is a way to limit position flip-flopping.

Score>15 Market is volatile [flip quickly]
Score~10 Transition zone
Score<5 Market lacks volatility [wait out change in indicators]

3-day average S&P500 volatility is scored at: 3.8 [2.8 single day]

New Volatility Model (expanded from 10 inputs to 50):  5.8 [4.7 single day]

Below I plot the momentum scores since 1990. You can see the Bear and Bull markets, but there were also times in Bull markets you needed to trade aggressively (May 2010, 2011, Aug 2015), and periods in Bear markets you could trade with a slower trigger.

MOMO

Technicals Model (proprietary)

The first chart below is the cumulative Technicals Model dating back to 2006. The last negative day was Mon 11/7 (after being down 26 days in a row)! This was worse than any time during the 2008-2009 crash! Here you can see the model performance (in blue vs. SPX in black) all the way back to 2006. I added the purple 200 day moving average to help discriminate between bull markets vs. bear markets (although fake-outs do occur such as 2011, and either 2015 or earlier in 2016). I also want to point out that the cumulative Technicals Model has not made a new All Time High in 2016. The model has now regained the 200 dma that it lost in October.

I have noted that the model did not confirm the last high for the SPX in 2007 (as denoted by red down arrows on the model, vs. SPX green up arrows).

Below the Model and SPX chart on figure 1, I have the performance of the ratio of the two. I have noted extreme readings (green) as potential bargain buy (such as Brexit which was the last extreme reading in green), and extreme Red readings being bearish for the market. Today is the 9th day in a row, that the ratio of the two is above zero! This broke the worst streak I have recorded! Also note that we are still below the Green (overheated) zone.

index_cumulative_all

This next chart shows the daily readings, not in cumulative mode as above. Here you can see which particular trading days are the strongest/weakest technically with the markets as portrayed by the model. Divergences also show up near market Tops/Bottoms. Note that significant deterioration has taken place in the comprehensive list of SPX individual stocks’ technicals July-Oct. But we must keep an eye on potential positive divergence vs. early September. This has given advanced warning of a bull rally! There is further evidence of continued momentum for the bulls as the latest Daily readings are higher than in September as well.

Comparing the slope of the Technicals Model vs. SPX today, the Model is slightly more bullish. These 1-day signals are not very reliable, but better than 50-50. 

index_daily_1year

What is this model? It’s a comprehensive assessment of a good number of technical indicators on each S&P500 stock. This model does 2 things well. First, it shows divergences from SPX price (for example, take a look at the Brexit SPX reaction at the end of June (black) vs. the non-reaction in my model (blue)). Most valuable of all, my model has a lot less volatility than SPX price but does a great job of capturing SPX trend, which should do well with forecasting SPX price movements in the future.

SPX Weekly

w

ADX: Bearish, trading

RSI: Nearing Upper quartile

CandleSlightly bullish, but finished off highs

Volume: Lower, at the steady 20 period moving average.

Moving Averages: Close>20>50>100>200 period moving averages

% Bollinger Band: Upper Quartile

Bollinger Band Width: Steadily falling

MACD: Bearish at a positive value, histogram ticked higher for the 2nd week in a row

SPX Daily

d

ADX: Bearish, trending

RSI: Upper quartile

CandleBearish, but more indecision than anything else

Volume: Lower, well below the steady 20 period moving average.

Moving Averages: Close>100>50>20>200 period moving averages

% Bollinger Band: Upper Quartile

Bollinger Band Width: Steadily rising

MACD: Bullish at a positive value, histogram ticked lower for the 3rd day in a row

SPX Hourly

h

At the 2177 pivot.

What I said yesterday still applies with today’s new high: “It seems as though we have captured the 2177 pivot, but I’d like to see a couple more SPX points higher before making a declaration. At today’s highs, negative divergences have been put in for ADX DI, RSI, MACD and MACD histogram. Everything is set for a pull back.”

VIX Hourly

vix

What I said yesterday still applies today “$VIX made a new low as I have forecast. But now we have developed positive divergences on ADX DI, RSI, MACD and MACD histogram. A turn higher can come at any moment.”

SPX Breadth

breadth

High-Low was +33 today. The McClellan Oscillator was positive for the 10th trading day, with the summation index back into positive range. Negative divergences are put in for New Highs and the McClellan Oscillator.

SPX %above MA

ma

The stochastic indicators have signaled a BUY for 5 of the 5 indicators. Huge negative divergence seen on the Full Stochastics (red arrows) since March.

Positive divergences between September and early November with 2 of the 5 of these indicators, broadcasted the reversal higher. Now 3 of these indicators are in the red Topping Zone, with 1 of them showing negative divergence.

TLT:TIP Daily

tlt_tip

Are we nearing the end of this flush or is this the new trend lower (meaning Trump saved America from Deflation)?

TLT:TIP has shown weakness after the record high for deflation fears occurred on 7/11/2016. Note we are still at the 2008 peak crisis levels. This does not even consider that SPX is near All Time Highs, nowhere near 900 when the first peak occurred!!!

The bond market Deflation vs. Inflation metric (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund vs. iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund). The previous peak was 10 Feb 2016. Values late in 2014 and pretty much all of 2016 are showing higher Deflation fears than even 2008-2009.

From this chart you can clearly see when the FED stepped in (when this ratio was nearing 1, except things got out of control at the peak of the 2008 downturn until the FED figured some things out).  Clearly things changed since late 2014 and the FED has stepped aside leading to the Deflation fears building beyond the 2008 crisis.

HYG:IEF Daily

hyg_ief

HYG:IEF gapped higher and had a good session Friday despite the weakness on Thursday. Negative divergences on ADX DI, RSI, MACD and MACD Histogram would support a turn lower.

HYG:IEF ratio is a way of looking at Greed vs. Fear in the more sophisticated bond market.

Oil Daily

oil

Oil continued its sideways/upward move today, but failed to reach a new high and also made lower lows than Thursday.

A collapse is still possible based on negative divergences since summer in the technical indicators for the end of 2016.

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Summary: Bulls vs. Bears

Final Thought:
No real changes on Friday. I again show negative divergences on SPX Daily, SPX Hourly, Breadth, HYG:IEF. Also shown were positive divergences on the $VIX. This all tells me a turn lower on the SPX is coming, risk off.

My proprietary Technicals Model remains quite bullish. It usually gives advanced notice of turns, especially when something big is coming. So my conclusion is this, expect a turn lower, it may spook the market a bit. But I continue to hold a LONG position which is consistent with my Technicals Model and signals. I also want to point out that the cumulative Technicals Model is back (slightly) above its 200 dma, something we will continue to watch closely.

I am also currently testing out a new method for signals using 999 ensemble members which takes my market Volatility Model into account. A side note, it also incorporates a Gaussian Distribution of randomness to create the ensemble. Well, today it gave a SELL signal with only 105 members currently bullish. I am not yet using it in practice, I want to monitor it for a few months first.

Speaking of my Volatility Model, I have a new version which accounts for 50 market factors as opposed to the 10 that the original had. I will run them in parallel for now.

As I was looking at my SPX hourly chart Thursday, I said to myself that if I were the market, no matter if a bull or bear run is ahead for us, that I would like the tag the bottom extension of the triangle we watched in September which broke down in early October. That line is the yellow line on the SPX hourly chart, which as of today sits at 2112.

Finally, I wanted to discuss a little bit how I tend to view the market. The market is made up of forces from a very small scale (1-min chart) to the very large scale (monthly chart). The more of these forces that align higher, the better the bull run (and the converse is true too). I have talked about the SPX Monthly stalling, as has the Weekly. The Daily chart has had a run higher since the election, but the Hourly has stalled. So naturally, the forces will favor shorts at least in the very short term. But the key is to look to whether the very short term (1, 5 ,15, 60 minute charts) can then recover before the Daily chart breaks down. Only this can dictate if the move higher since the election is ending, or just resting before another move higher later this year.

Bullish

  • SPX Daily above the 20, 50, 100, 200 dma
  • Positive Divergence vs. September Low on McClellan Oscillator
  • Positive Divergence vs. September Low on 2/5 Percent Above Moving Averages
  • Positive Divergence vs. September Low on Technicals Model
  • At the 2177 pivot
  • HYG:IEF short term bounce, ending soon?
  • Oil short term bounce, ending soon?
  • BUY signals on 5 of 5 of Number of stocks above their 20/50 dma, but 3 of them reached the red Topping Zone
  • Broke long term trend of the number of New Highs decreasing
  • Daily Technicals Model made new highs for November
  • Technical Model (cumulative) now above its 200 dma

Bearish

  • $VIX to start a move higher very soon
  • Cumulative Technicals Model has not made a new high in 2016
  • Technical Model negative for 26 of past 35 days, unprecedented!
  • The Performance of the Technical Model:SPX ratio has been negative for 72 of the past 80 trading days, unprecedented!
  • Daily scores from the Technical Model negatively diverging through the months of July-September
  • SPX 20 dma below the 50 dma for the past 45 trading days and below the 100 dma for the past 17 trading days
  • SPX 50 dma below the 100 dma for past 10 trading days
  • After 3 weeks in a row closing above Top Weekly Bollinger Band, it failed to do so for the past 16 weeks
  • Weekly MACD is a SELL
  • Monthly technicals very favorable for a stalling market

Levels to watch

  • 2212 pivot and bottom extension of Sept-Oct triangle
  • 2177 pivot
  • 2148 near 50/100 dma
  • 2131 pivot level
  • 2128 20 dma
  • 2116 pivot level
  • 2089 SPX 200 dma
  • 2085 pivot
  • 2070 pivot

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Feb-March 2016 Posts: https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/ 

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Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).

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