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VXX: Bought VXX 14C exp Jul 15 2016 on 4/28/2016 when VXX was near $15.18
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022
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ADX: Declining momentum (from Dec-Feb downturn), in a trading market, with bears narrowly on top
RSI: Middle of the road, neither overbought nor oversold. Near where we have been topping of late.
Candle: Doji up for the week
Volume: Below the 20 dma
Moving Averages: Close>100>50>20>200 period moving averages
% Bollinger Band: Upper quartile of the band
Bollinger Band Width: Quite wide, no huge move expected here
MACD: Bullish at a positive value, histogram continuing to weaken
ADX: Looking like a stalling negative trend
RSI: Middle of the road
Candle: Bullish day but closed below highs
Volume: Very weak, well below the 20 dma
Moving Averages: 20>50>Close>200>100 period moving averages, close occurred below the 50 dma 4 days in a row!
% Bollinger Band: Lower quartile of the band
Bollinger Band Width: Still quite narrow but a tick higher, a large move at this scale is still on the radar
MACD: Bearish at a negative value, histogram ticked higher
Between the 2043 and 2070 pivots
ADX: Sideways trading
RSI: Overbought territory
Moving Averages: 200>Close>100>20>50 period moving averages
% Bollinger Band: Top quartile of the band
Bollinger Band Width: Starting to narrow again
MACD: Bullish at a positive value, negative divergence with the histogram vs. Thursday
ADX: Weakening negative trend
RSI: Gradually rising to mid range
Moving Averages: 200>100>50>20>Close
% Bollinger Band: Near the bottom of the Bollinger Band
Bollinger Band Width: Still quite narrow (and narrowing again), suggesting a big move could be on the horizon
MACD: Bullish with a negative value, been basing since late March
Sideways trading since mid March. A negative move (bearish) is on the horizon with a double negative divergence forming with MACD as Bollinger Bands narrow.
On the NYSE price chart I drew an upsloping blue line between two recent lows. However, internally, there is a downward (bearish) channel for new highs and lows as well as the $NYMO. The summation index Full STO is at levels last seen in mid Dec 2015 just before the plunge accelerated downward.
%Stocks above 200dma
Full STO for %stocks above 200dma in 5 different market classes is rolling over from the highest level since late 2014 (!!!). Currently this indicator is at early to mid Dec 2015 levels (sound familiar?).
%Stocks above 50dma
I drew a horizontal line between 2 recent lows on the NYSE. Yet internally all 5 tracked indices are much weaker. Their Full STO is generally descending through levels last seen mid to late Dec 2015 (cough)!
%Stocks above 20dma
Same idea with the Percent of stocks above their 20 dma. Here we see Buy signals from all 5 Full STO signals. Can also be compared to mid Dec 2015.
I was asked to present something about Oil. WTI is trending higher at the moment along the top of its Bollinger Band. It’s biggest buying volume occurred in late April through mid May. However Bulls should be getting out as the MACD displays a double negative divergence. I think Oil could be one of the best shorts out there in the next 3-6 months. But given that we are still trending higher, scaling into shorts is prudent. I would be surprised if the top is not seen within the next 4-7 trading days.
So where do we sit? Well we got our bounce as expected for options expiration, but on little volume. Could we continue to bounce or go sideways for a few days – yes. However the hourly RSI is getting overheated and there is stiff resistance (20/50 dma) and 2070 pivot not too far off. The potential bounce is too short for me to play in my 401k.
Bears have to like the downward slope to the 20 dma, about to cross the 50 dma too! We have closed BELOW the 20 dma during the past 8 trading days, and the 50 dma during the past 4.
Oh an in case you missed it, we are already 1 year into this drawn out and historically detrimental bear market.
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