Friday June 17, 2016

[adinserter block=”1″]

I sent an email blast notifying users of the new post. If you did not get this email, email your user name to so we can fix your email address in my database! 

Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
Follow me on Twitter @Stormchaser80 to get new post notifications

  Trading Account: NO POSITION  
  401K: Bearish  
  Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022  

I LOVE comments, please send me one!

As always, the Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Hourly and so on SPX charts I show are from all hours of the day, and therefore the prices and indicators will vary from charts which only show action during regular trading hours. I believe this method is more robust and encapsulates global sentiment, better capturing trends.

Update to Subscribers…

First Thoughts…

Today I have another weekend login free post. If you don’t have a login and can’t read the message above, you should register for a free one at the end of this post. Within 12 hours, you’ll be able to read something that should interest you significantly (no its not just another chart I put in as a ploy to make folks sign up)! And if it doesn’t, well, it took 30 seconds and cost you nothing 🙂

On to our main event!

SPX Weekly


ADX: Bearish but in a deep trading range with NO momentum

RSI: Near middle of the range

Candle: Bearish week but bulls were able to come off the lows

Volume: Slight increase, but still bellow the slumping 20 ma

Moving Averages: Close>100>20>50>200 period moving averages

% Bollinger Band: Upper quartile

Bollinger Band Width: Still somewhat narrow

MACD: Bullish at a positive value, histogram ticked lower

SPX Daily


ADX: Bearish but trading range (non-trending)

RSI: Middle of the range

Candle: Bearish but some indecision each way

Volume: Increased on this options expiration day, above the 20 dma

Moving Averages: 20>50>Close>100>200 period moving averages, 5th day closing below the 50 dma

% Bollinger Band: Lower quartile

Bollinger Band Width: Still somewhat narrow

MACD: Bearish at a positive value, histogram ticked lower for the 14th straight trading day. Bad negative divergence (Bearish) since 3rd week of March.

SPX Hourly


Back down to the 2070 pivot

ADX: Bearish, trading range

RSI: Falling to lower quartile

Volume: Mostly baerish

Moving Averages: 200>20>100>50>Close period moving averages

% Bollinger Band: Above the bottom

Bollinger Band Width: Narrowing

MACD: Bearish at a negative value

SPX 15-Minute


I did a quick Fib analysis of the recent drop in June. The 0.5 retrace is 2085.6 (note 2085 is also a pivot). Other popular destinations would be 2094 and 2105 should the uptrend occur next week.

VIX Daily


3rd day in a row closing back in the Bollinger band, with positive divergence on the -DI, negative divergence on RSI and lower MACD histogram, all bearish.

Positively diverging MACD since late March which is good for VIX Bulls in the medium term, with a relatively narrow Bollinger Band width supportive of an upcoming large move.

SPX Breadth


McClellan Oscillator improved. Both number of new highs and lows decreased.

SPX %above MA


Percent of SPX stocks above their 20/50/200  dma have steadied and are now increasing. What I find particularly interesting is how much lower the Full Stochastic indicator will be topping. That negative divergence is very bad news for the market in the medium term.

SPX Advance-Decline


Interesting divergence between flat market, new highs on advance-decline, but lower high of advance-decline volume.



The bond market Deflation vs. Inflation metric (iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund vs. iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund) shows near record Deflation fears, the peak was 10 Feb 2016. Values late in 2014 and pretty much all of 2016 are showing higher Deflation fears than even 2008-2009.

From this chart you can clearly see when the FED stepped in (when this ratio was nearing 1, except things got out of control at the peak of the 2008 downturn until the FED figured some things out).  Clearly things changed since late 2014 and the FED has stepped aside leading to the Deflation fears building beyond the 2008 crisis.

Deflation fears came back in today, we are not far from the 11 Feb 2016 All Time Highs.



Closed back in the Bollinger band. Improvement seen in RSI, ADX DIs and MACD histogram.

The bond market signals a sideways move in greed vs. fear since mid March, while MACD/RSI/ADX is negatively diverging indicating a large bearish move is expected in the medium term.

Oil Daily


Big up day on low volume. Back in the Bollinger band, with improving RSI and MACD histogram.

Pretty sure between the technicals and seasonality that we have seen the top for some time.

[adinserter block=”1″]


Still thinking a short term reversal higher is underway (see I am not a perma-bear!), but obviously off the highs seen Thursday evening. At support of 2070 pivot. The next target if we head back up will be at least being 2085 (Fib and pivot), likely higher. VIX looked weak again today, with risk on oil and HYG vs. IEF. Also breadth was better again, with %stocks vs. moving averages starting to rise again.

Finally, while I believe all markets are in trouble medium term, keep a sharper eye on high yield (HYG) and oil. These should start to tank at a quicker pace initially compared to the market when our trend changes back down.


Old posts: 


Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).


[adinserter block=”1″]

Can’t see my post above? You need to register for a free account first! If you are a member, please login here! If you have login problems try these steps:

  • Check to make sure you are using the correct username (not email) and password
  • Clear your web browser cache (search for instructions for your browser)
  • Try a different web browser
  • Take a screen shot at the point you are getting stuck and send it to me

Please, if you find any technical issues that the above steps do not solve, email me at

Not a member? You need to register. Don’t worry its free and fast!

Register New Account

Free Trial – Total access to all posts through at least May 2016. In the future Free accounts give you access only to weekly posts more than 3 months old, limited access to other tools. Site will have ads.


  1. All I ask, is for you to create a user account. No payment information will be collected at all at this time.
  2. After you create your user account and agree to all the terms and conditions, you will be granted access to posts like you are used to, only upgraded!
  3. It may take up to 12 hours for you to be able to see content, please check back!
No votes yet.
Please wait...

1 Comment on "Friday June 17, 2016"

  1. great stuff Storm! can’t wait to see your signals again. hope it’s more robust tthan the previous signals.

    No votes yet.
    Please wait...

Comments are closed.